Chris Moore @ Momentum Realty · Duval · Clay · St. Johns · Nassau · Bradford Counties · Northeast Florida
904-606-9163 · cmgroup904@gmail.com
MARKET SNAPSHOT

The Northeast Florida almanac.

Live numbers, straight from the MLS — not last quarter's press release. Every figure on this page comes from a named source, and if a source is down we say so instead of guessing.

This week's mortgage rates Loading…

30-Year Fixed
National average
15-Year Fixed
National average

Source: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, via FRED.

Homes on the market, by area Live from the MLS (realMLS RESO feed) — pick an area

Pick an area above.

NEFAR monthly market report Checking for the latest report…

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What's going on this week The latest from Chris's desk

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All market notes and guides →

Where every number on this page comes from Four sources, each named, none blended together

A market page is only as good as its sourcing, so here is exactly where each section pulls from: the mortgage rates come from Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey, distributed through FRED. The area-by-area cards come from the realMLS RESO replication feed — the same data feed licensed Northeast Florida agents use, not a public-facing aggregator. The monthly report comes from NEFAR, the Northeast Florida Association of Realtors, published on their own schedule. And the county-level figures below come from Zillow's published Home Value Index and Observed Rent Index. Four different organizations, four different update schedules, and this page says so rather than presenting them as one smooth number.

That also means the numbers on this page will occasionally disagree with each other by a little, and that's expected. The MLS feed reflects active listings and closings this month. NEFAR's report reflects last month, reviewed and finalized. Zillow's index is a smoothed model built from public records going back further still. None of the three is wrong — they're measuring the same market from three different distances, and the gap between them is itself useful information about how fast things are moving.

How to read "months of inventory" The single number that tells you who has the leverage

Months of inventory answers one question: at the current pace of sales, how long would it take to sell everything currently on the market? Divide active listings by the average monthly pace of closings and that's the number. It is the cleanest single read on whether a market favors buyers or sellers, because it accounts for both supply and actual demand at the same time — unlike active listing counts alone, which only show supply. A rising count of active listings does not automatically mean a softer market; if closings are rising just as fast, months of inventory can hold steady or even fall. That's why this page shows the calculated number instead of just the raw listing count — the raw count on its own can be read either way, and often is, by whichever side of a negotiation is doing the reading.

Under 4 months
Seller's market. Homes move fast and multiple-offer situations are more common. Buyers should expect less negotiating room on price.
4 to 6 months
Balanced market. Neither side has a structural edge. Pricing and presentation still decide outcomes.
Over 6 months
Buyer's market. Sellers who need to move on a timeline should expect to compete on price, condition or concessions.

This is the same threshold the live area cards above use to label a market "Seller's," "Buyer's," or "Balanced." It's a real-time calculation, not a fixed label — pick a different area above and the read can change.

Why this page shows real numbers, not averages The difference between a ZIP-level MLS pull and a national portal estimate

Most "market update" pages on real estate sites are static — written once, then left alone for months while the market moves under them. The area cards above are pulled live from the realMLS RESO feed for the ZIP you select, not from a syndicated national average that blends every price point and every property type together. A median list price across an entire metro area tells you almost nothing about what a 3-bedroom in Fleming Island is doing this month. A ZIP-level pull, checked against the ZIP it was asked for, tells you something closer to the truth — with the honest caveat that a ZIP is still not your specific street. That's what the "get my home's number" tool below this page is for.

Northeast Florida, county by county Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) and Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), June 2026

Duval County
$297,493
-1.7% year over year · rent ~$1,616/mo · 27.35% of listings had a price cut · 5,454 active
Clay County
$339,079
-1.0% year over year · rent ~$1,875/mo · 28.79% of listings had a price cut · 1,254 active
St. Johns County
$492,885
-2.7% year over year · rent ~$2,116/mo · 27.44% of listings had a price cut · 3,297 active
Nassau County
$486,173
-0.9% year over year · rent ~$2,238/mo · 27.12% of listings had a price cut · 891 active
Baker County
$321,619
+3.7% year over year · 30.9% of listings had a price cut · 95 active
Putnam County
$219,440
+1.1% year over year · 25.52% of listings had a price cut · 387 active
Bradford County
$256,701
+3.5% year over year · 32.57% of listings had a price cut · 92 active
Florida, statewide
$392,443
-3.0% year over year (Zillow Home Value Index, published July 2026)

The pattern across the region is not uniform. Duval, Clay, St. Johns and Nassau — the higher-priced, higher-inventory counties — are all down year over year, in line with the statewide direction. Baker, Putnam and Bradford, the smaller rural counties, are up over the same period, though on a fraction of the inventory, which makes them more volatile month to month. Source: Zillow Home Value Index and Zillow Observed Rent Index, county-level data for June 2026, plus the statewide release published July 6, 2026. These are county averages, not ZIP-level or street-level numbers — use the live area cards above and the home value tool below for anything closer to a specific address.

Questions about this page

Q: Why don't the numbers on this page match Zillow's Zestimate or Redfin's estimate for my house?
A: Those are automated valuation models built on public records and comparable sales, updated on their own schedule. The area cards above come straight from the MLS in real time. Both can be directionally useful, but only one reflects what's actually listed and closing right now.
Q: How often does this page update?
A: The mortgage rate and MLS area cards refresh on every page load. The NEFAR monthly report updates when NEFAR publishes, typically mid-month. The county figures above are a fixed snapshot from June 2026 and will be refreshed as new data is reviewed.
Q: What does "months of inventory" actually predict?
A: It's a snapshot of current supply and demand, not a forecast. A market can shift from buyer's to seller's conditions within a season if rates move or new listings slow down, so treat the number as a read of right now, not a guarantee of what happens next.
Q: Why is a price-cut share useful to know before listing a home?
A: It shows how often sellers in that county are initially overpricing and having to correct. A high price-cut share is a signal to price accurately from day one rather than testing the market high and adjusting later.
Q: Should I wait for rates to drop before buying in Northeast Florida?
A: There is no reliable way to time a rate bottom, and waiting has a cost of its own — competition typically increases when rates fall, which can offset the savings. Run the numbers at today's rate and at a lower hypothetical rate side by side, then decide based on payment tolerance, not a guess about the future.
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