Northeast Florida Housing Market Pulse

1. Six Counties, By the Numbers

I cover six counties day to day: Duval, Clay, St. Johns, Nassau, Baker, and Putnam. Here's where each one actually stands as of the June 2026 ZHVI release, so you're comparing real numbers instead of a vibe.

Duval County — typical home value $297,493, down about 1.7% year over year from $302,613. Rent (ZORI) $1,616/month. Price-cut share 27.35% of active listings. Active inventory 5,454, by far the deepest pool in the region.

Clay County — typical home value $339,079, down about 1.0% year over year from $342,660. Rent $1,875/month. Price-cut share 28.79%. Active inventory 1,254.

St. Johns County — typical home value $492,885, down about 2.7% year over year from $506,615, the sharpest pullback of the six. Rent $2,116/month. Price-cut share 27.44%. Active inventory 3,297.

Nassau County — typical home value $486,173, down about 0.9% year over year from $490,689. Rent $2,238/month, the highest in the region. Price-cut share 27.12%. Active inventory 891.

Baker County — typical home value $321,619, up about 3.7% year over year from $310,192 — one of only two counties I cover still gaining value. Price-cut share 30.9%, the highest of the six. Active inventory just 95 listings.

Putnam County — typical home value $219,440, up about 1.1% year over year from $217,108, and the most affordable county in my coverage area by a wide margin. Price-cut share 25.52%, the lowest of the six. Active inventory 387.

Line those six up side by side and the spread is enormous: Putnam's $219,440 typical value sits at less than half of St. Johns County's $492,885. That's not a subtle difference — it means the "Northeast Florida market" question doesn't have one answer. It has six, and the right one depends entirely on your budget, your commute tolerance, and what you're trying to buy into. Rent tells a similar story where I have the data: Nassau's $2,238 typical rent runs 38% higher than Duval's $1,616, even though Nassau's home values aren't proportionally that much higher — a gap worth running the numbers on if you're deciding between renting and buying in either county.

2. What's Actually Driving This

Here's the pattern across those six numbers: four counties are cooling (Duval, Clay, St. Johns, Nassau), two are still gaining (Baker, Putnam), and there's no single "Northeast Florida market" — there are six of them, running at different speeds. St. Johns County has the sharpest year-over-year pullback at 2.7%, which tracks with it also carrying the highest typical value at $492,885; higher-priced markets are absorbing more of the rate-driven cooling than the more affordable counties are. Baker County, meanwhile, is up 3.7% with the tightest inventory of any county I track at just 95 listings — when supply is that thin, price keeps climbing even while the region around it softens.

Set that against the state: Florida's typical home value was $392,443 as of the July 2026 release (covering June data), down 3.0% year over year, with 46 of Florida's 67 counties declining in value. Statewide active listings sit at 188,437, up sharply from 211,415 a year earlier — supply is loosening statewide even as it stays razor-thin in Baker and Putnam. Statewide price-cut share is 25.2%, which means five of my six counties (all but Putnam) are running a slightly higher price-cut rate than the state average — sellers here are having to negotiate a bit more than the typical Florida seller right now.

The number that touches every one of these markets the same way is the mortgage rate: 6.52% on a 30-year fixed, per Freddie Mac's PMMS as of June 11, 2026. That rate is why a county can show falling home values and still feel expensive to a buyer — the payment math is driven as much by the rate as by the price tag. I run that calculation for every client before we talk strategy, because "the market is down" and "your payment is affordable" are two different questions.

Price-cut share is the number I watch closest as a seller's advocate, because it tells you how much negotiating room buyers are actually finding, county by county. Baker's 30.9% and Clay's 28.79% are the highest on this list — sellers there are having to move on price more than sellers in Putnam at 25.52% or Nassau at 27.12%. If you're listing in a higher price-cut county, that's not a reason to panic; it's a reason to price accurately from day one instead of testing the market high and getting pulled into that statistic three or four weeks later.

3. What This Means If You're Moving on Military Orders

A meaningful share of my clients are PCS families weighing these six counties against a base assignment — NAS Jax and NS Mayport are the two installations that drive most of that decision-making region-wide. Duval's deep inventory (5,454 listings) and moderate price point make it the default landing spot for a lot of orders. Clay County, just southwest, offers a lower typical value than St. Johns or Nassau with a shorter commute to NAS Jax for many neighborhoods. St. Johns and Nassau carry the highest price points on this list, which buys you top-rated school zones and coastal or near-coastal living, but it changes your BAH math meaningfully compared to Duval, Clay, or Baker.

Wherever you land, the process is the same: get your VA entitlement, funding fee, and BAH-versus-payment numbers from your lender before you shop, and let your PCS timeline — not a generic 30-day close — drive your offer terms. I've walked enough Marines, soldiers, sailors, and airmen through this exact decision to know that the "best" county on this page is the one that matches your orders, your commute tolerance, and your actual budget once the current 6.52% rate is factored in — not the one with the prettiest listing photos.

If you're weighing a cash offer against listing on the open market anywhere in these six counties, I'll run both numbers for your specific property. A cash close trades speed and certainty for a lower net; the open market usually nets more but takes longer and depends on your county's current price-cut environment, which — as the numbers above show — varies a lot depending on where you are.

None of this replaces a street-level comparative market analysis. County-wide figures tell you direction and pace — whether Nassau is cooling faster than Clay, whether Baker's tight inventory means a seller has leverage — but they don't tell you what your specific house on your specific street is worth. I pull both for every client: the county number, so you understand the trend you're buying or selling into, and the actual comps, so you understand your number. That's the process I've run for over 300 Northeast Florida families, and it's the same one I'll run for you.